Is Climate Change Real?
Why I no longer believe that Climate Change is a catastrophic risk that needs urgent attention.
If you are like me, you believed all of the headlines. Global warming is mostly caused by humans burning fossil fuels. This heating phenomenon is causing huge changes in the climate. Ice caps are melting, reefs are bleaching and dying, the sea level is rising, the intensity of storms is worse, there are more forest fires, etc.
A few years ago, I started looking at the scientific data. In summary:
There is no data to support the catastrophic headlines you see.
However, there is a lot of published data to show that the climate is not changing at an alarming rate.
What if all of the information you have been fed is wrong?
It means that most of the government efforts, using your hard-earned tax money, are a waste. It means alternative energy sources won’t solve anything. It means governments and society are doing the wrong things to make our future better.
This is so serious that we all need to start asking questions. We need to demand data to support the claims by news channels.
The purpose of this blog post is to collect and summarize the data we do have.
I am not a climate denier. I am a climate realist!
Global Warming vs Climate Change
About 8 years ago, we talked about global warming. The temperature is rising, and that would cause a number of problems. Then, suddenly, everyone was talking about climate change as if the two things were the same. They are not the same.
Global warming means that the Earth and the air above it are getting warmer. It does not mean higher intensity storms or more or less rainfall, although there is some effect on such things. It is simply a measure of the temperature.
Scientists agree that the Earth is warming. What scientists don’t agree on is a) the cause of warming, and b) the degree of warming.
Headlines such as “97% of scientists agree humans are causing global warming” are completely wrong. No such survey was ever conducted.
What about climate change? Scientists agree that the climate is changing. It always changes and has done so for millions of years. It is also clear that we do not understand the effects of various forces on climate change. Most claims about future climate change are at best “estimated guesses” based on limited knowledge.
Here is just one example. We have very little understanding of how clouds affect climate change. More clouds mean less solar radiation reaches the ground. But they also trap heat against the surface of the Earth. More moisture in the air causes more clouds, and water vapor is just as good a greenhouse gas as CO2. Do clouds affect the heating of Earth more than CO2? What effect do more clouds have on climate change? Scientists agree that we don’t know the answers to these questions.
Is Climate Change a Real Threat?
The majority of headlines say YES.
Melting Ice Threatens Shoelines
The Climate Crisis – A Race We Can’t Win
How Climate Change Is Causing World Hunger
Climate Change Makes Hurricanes More Destructive
Al Gore, a Nobel prize winner, said this in 2009, “There is a 75 percent chance that the entire north polar ice cap…during some of the summer months, could be completely ice-free within five to seven years.”
It is now 16 years later, and the ice cap has lots of ice even in summer.
Almost none of the predictions from climate activists have come true. Hurricanes and storms have not gotten any worse. The number of forest fires is decreasing. Increased CO2 is making plants grow better and allowing us to grow more food, not less. Coral reefs are growing in size, not dying. The list goes on.
We need to understand climate change better so that we can adapt and make changes to accommodate it. There is no real evidence that our near-term lives are threatened or that our way of life will suddenly need to change.
The rest of this post will look at specific cases to investigate the Reality of Climate Change.
What Does The IPCC Say?
The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the global organization tasked with evaluating climate change. It takes data from thousands of scientists and summarizes what we know.
Climate activists, news organizations, politicians, and the majority of the population have the understanding that the IPCC makes the following claims:
Climate change is an emergency, and we need to act now.
Extreme weather is getting worse due to greenhouse gases.
What does the IPCC actually say?
You can read the full report for yourself. A summary of the current climate situation can be found in the IPCC AR6 WG1 report, chapter 12, table 12.12, section 12.5.2. You can read the details in the report, or watch a video highlighting them in a lecture given by Ross McKitrick, University of Guelph. The latter is much easier to digest and uses actual quotes.
What the IPCC actually says, in both the AR5 and AR6 reports, is the following.
There is no evidence of climate change, beyond natural variability, for the following:
River floods
Heavy precipitation
Landslides
Drought of all types
Severe windstorms
Tropical cyclones
Sand and dust storms
Heavy snowfall and hail
Ice storms
Coastal flooding
Marine heat waves
Ocean acidification
Risk of fire
The evidence for climate change, over and above normal variability, does not exist. There is, however, evidence of global warming, which has resulted in glacier ice melt and permafrost melting.
The IPCC is in agreement with most of the points made in this post.
The Reality:
The IPCC report suggests there is no climate change.
The IPCC confirms the existence of global warming.
Are Forest Fires Increasing?
Early spring 2024, Western Canada seemed to have a lot of forest fires, and the alarmists and news outlets in Canada were predicting another terrible year due to “climate change”.
Then there was a brief news article that almost no one noticed. Alberta had declared that every one of their approximately 150 fires was human-caused. They did not say it, but clearly, these were not due to climate change.
Why would climate change cause forest fires? The logic goes something like this. Climate change causes more severe storms, resulting in more lightning. More lightning means more forest fires because it’s the main cause of natural forest fires.
The above chart shows the historical number of forest fires in Canada, which has been declining since the mid-1990s. The data has been confirmed by the Fraser Institute.
So why does everyone think they are getting worse? This is mostly due to poor news reporting, but there is another underlying reason. The severity and cost of them are increasing. This is due to forest mismanagement as well as the fact that more and more people live in forested regions. But this increase in severity and cost is not due to climate change.
2025 is a repeat of 2024. Most forest fires are caused by humans.
Forest Fires in the USA
What about the USA? They seem to have a lot of fires, especially in California.
The number of forest fires is not increasing. In fact, there is a slight downward trend since 2010.
What about California? They have the same trend. The number of forest fires has been decreasing since the 1990s.
What About the Burned Area?
Climate alarmists have suggested that we need to look at burned area instead of the number of actual fires. They never explain why this makes more sense, but let’s look at that data.
The burned area depends very much on forest management and our ability to respond to fires. In North America, both management and response are poor.
What about longer-term trends? Here is the burnt area for the US since 1926.
A review of global fires, published in 2016, found that “the global area burned by forest fires appears to have overall declined over past decades, and there is increasing evidence that there is less fire in the global landscape today than centuries ago. “
NASA data shows that the burnt area in North America is stable, while the global burn area is trending down. NASA also has data for other regions, and they are all flat or trending down.
The Reality:
The number of forest fires is not increasing in Canada, the USA, or globally.
The burned area from fires is not increasing in North America or globally.
News Changes Its Approach to Scare People About Climate Change
For years, news outlets have been warning about the dire consequences of “Climate Change Caused Forest Fires”. But this year, 2025, has seen a big drop in the number of forest fires, and some news outlets have finally checked the facts.
The New York Times reported that:
“Costly and Deadly Wildfires Really Are on the Rise, New Research Finds”
Shame on them.
Instead of being honest and letting people know that Climate Change is not causing a crisis and that it is not causing an increase in forest fires, they have decided to pivot and focus on “the cost of fire”. Even if their data is right, it only tells us that we are increasing the number of structures near forests, and that these structures keep getting more expensive.
That is not support for climate change! But it does allow news to continue to support a catastrophic scenario.
Record Hot Days in the US
It has been a hot summer in North America, and Europe has broken numerous heat records. Are heat waves more common now?
The Heat Wave Index in the US
The Heat Wave Index, more commonly known as the Heat Index or apparent temperature, is a measure of how hot it “feels” to the human body, combining the effects of air temperature and relative humidity. It is used to assess potential health risks during hot weather.
There is no significant change in the trend since 1930, and in recent years, the heat index is lower than in the 30’s, before humans produced so much CO2.
Hot Days in the US
The above data shows us how it feels, but it does not show the actual temperature. Does the US have more hot days now than in the past?
This chart shows the average number of hot days per year in the US, with a daily maximum temperature of ≥95°, ≥100°, and ≥105°. It is a reconstruction by Chris Martz using official data from the United States Historical Climatology Network (USHCN).
There is clearly no upward trend during the period of 1900 and today.
Annual Average Temperatures in the US
Another way to look at temperature is to measure the average annual temperature.
There is a clear trend upwards over the last 100 years, but even in the last 20 years, there are highs and lows, and many of the years are cooler than some years in the 1930s.
Why is the average temperature increasing when the record highs are not? This seems contradictory until you look at nighttime temperatures.
An average daily temperature is the average between the daily high and low. If the nighttime temperatures (the lows) are trending up and the daytime temperatures remain stationary, the daily average goes up, and that is what is happening. Nighttime lows are getting warmer more quickly than daytime highs.
The Reality:
Heat waves are not worse than in the 1930s.
Temperatures are steadily going up. Average daily temperatures are increasing mostly due to warmer nights.
Heat waves and record high temperature days are not as severe as reported in the media.
Are Storms Increasing?
We now have good data about global storms thanks to satellites. We know where they all are and how intense they are.
Tropical storms are not increasing. The number of hurricanes is stable or slightly decreasing. Major hurricanes are stable.
Hurricanes In The US
NOAA has reported on the number of major hurricanes to strike mainland USA for each decade since 1951. The average for the entire time is 5.6. The average since 2011 is only 3.5. The highest number occurred between 1941 and 1950, which had 10. Clearly, the number of major hurricanes in the US is not increasing.
The Reality:
The number and intensity of storms are stable, both in North America and globally.
Is Precipitation Increasing?
A satellite study on this concluded “No overall significant trend is noted in the global precipitation mean value, unlike that for surface temperature and atmospheric water vapor. However, there is a pattern of positive and negative trends across the planet with increases over tropical oceans and decreases over some middle latitude regions”.
Overall, there is no clear trend in precipitation; however, smaller regions may experience fluctuations. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle and volcanic activity also influence local rainfall.
The Reality:
The amount of precipitation falling globally or in the US has not seen a major change.
Are Coral Reefs Dying
The oceans are getting warmer and more acidic as they absorb CO2. That is bleaching the coral reefs and killing them, or so it is claimed.
There are some important facts about coral that the news outlets ignore:
Coral thrives in warm water. That is why it is found mostly in warm regions of the world.
Almost none of the coral reefs in the world have been studied. The one that has been studied the most is the Great Barrier Reef around Australia, and due in part to its vast size, it has only been superficially studied.
Coral bleaching can be caused by several factors, and it usually recovers in a few years.
Coral has existed for 60 million years, surviving temperature and carbon dioxide levels significantly higher than those occurring today.
Coral reefs are very difficult to study. You can fly over them and take pictures, but that only shows you the top of shallow reefs. Most of the coral is found much deeper and requires divers to examine it. That is every expensive and why most coral is not examined.
How is the Great Barrier Reef doing? It is doing just fine. It is not dying. In fact, it is growing at both the northern and southern ends.
Growth at the southern tip is not a surprise. The water there is warming, and that is what coral likes. So it is growing and doing well.
The surprise is that the northern end is also growing in places where warm water is getting even warmer. Ocean warming is not harming it.
The amount of coral in the Great Barrier Reef has decreased in the last couple of years, but it is at an all-time high since 1985.
How are coral reefs doing? It is estimated that 30% will be destroyed or seriously degraded in the next ten years, but not due to climate change.
The causes of reef degradation are many and man-caused: grounding of ships, improperly placed anchorages, destructive fishing practices, such as dynamiting or cyanide poisoning, overfishing, pollution, and sediment runoff.
Bleaching can be caused by sediment and fertilizer pollution. Even sunscreen oil can harm them. It can also be caused by heat waves and cold snaps. In most cases, they recover in a few years.
If ocean warming becomes extreme, coral will simply migrate towards the poles.
The Reality:
Coral is not impacted very much by global warming.
Coral reefs are expanding where human activity is low.
Are There More Floods?
A devastating flash flood impacted the Texas Hill Country, particularly along the Guadalupe River in Kerr County, on July 4, 2025, resulting in numerous fatalities and widespread destruction. It was documented by all the news outlets, which blamed it on climate change.
Was it climate change?
The area is called “Flash Flood Alley“ for a reason. The topography lends itself to such events. For our discussion, the key question is, was this an unusual event? Are floods in his region increasing? A single event is not proof of climate change. We need to see a longer-term trend to blame climate change.
Roy Spencer, climatologist and former NSA scientist, has done a good job analysing this. The rainfall data shows that this was not an unusual event. Flood events have been trending down since the 1978 flood.
Maybe the news outlets should have reported that climate change is reducing flood events?
The Department of Energy’s report entitled, A Critical Review of Impacts of Greenhouse Gas Emissions on the U.S. Climate, reported that “when one looks at rainfall statistics across the U.S. extending back to the mid- to late-1800s, there is little evidence for anything that might be considered related to human-caused climate change”.
Using floods to determine climate change is tricky. A lot of the data shows financial losses, but it should be no surprise that this is going up. More people are living in more floodplains and building expensive buildings. There is also the issue that humans have moved earth to redirect flooding, which in many cases makes flooding worse in one area while protecting another. We can’t blame any of this on climate change.
The Reality:
Flood data does not show an increase in floods in the US.
Floods are largely influenced by human activity on the ground and have nothing to do with CO2 or global warming.
Is Climate Change a Threat
Climate change happens and will continue to happen. The important question is, is climate change a threat to our lives?
Based on the above data, it’s not. The data does not warrant the views of climate alarmists.
The truth is that global warming has been good for humanity. The following shows the impact since 1900. A reduction in deaths due to weather, longer life expectancy, higher GDP, and less poverty. On a global scale, it is hard to find a negative.
When I first published the above table on Garden Myths, several people commented that they did not believe the data, without providing evidence that it’s wrong. So I checked the data for the weather-related death rate.
Check out the details in this post: It is very clear that global warming is saving lives.
Number of People Killed by Climate-related Disasters
If climate-related disasters are increasing, you would expect more people to die from them. The general public and the news media certainly think so.
The reality is that the number of deaths from floods, droughts, storms, wildfires, and extreme temperatures has dropped dramatically. Most of this is due to human advancement in technology, but there is certainly no evidence of an increase.
Cost of Disasters
An increase in the number of disasters or the severity of disasters should result in an increase in cost.
The trend between 1990 and 2017 is down, not up. If disasters were more extreme, we would expect to see the opposite.
Some charts show an increase in actual costs for this time period, but they don’t take into account the increasing value of human-made structures. For NOAA’s charts, they say, “A major driver of increased costs of extreme weather is the increase in population and material wealth over the last several decades”. The above chart, based on GDP, more correctly reflects those costs.
The Reality:
Global warming is saving lives and making our lives better
Climate Change is not a threat.
Evidence For Climate Change
The climate alarmists and news outlets continue to promote the idea that we are in a crisis. The evidence for this does not exist. Even the IPCC agrees and says, “There is no evidence of climate change, beyond natural variability”.
It is important that all of us understand this topic better, so that we can influence government leaders to act more responsibly. Trying to solve a problem that does not exist costs us dearly.
Some of the climate effect graphs in this document are attributed to the EPA. Yet the links take you to an EPA page that states "Sorry this page does not exist". Navigating from the EPA's home page does not help. Can you please send me to the source of these EPA derived graphs?